India’s Rising Importance for the US: Potential and Grim Challenges

India’s increasing inclination towards sourcing defence supplies from the US does signify a strengthening strategic partnership. However, it is important to recognise that defence cooperation takes time to mature, and challenges may arise along the way.

India’s ascent on the global stage is a subject that has garnered limited attention, yet recent developments point to its growing significance. However, it is also true that India remains relatively unknown among the American public and policy circles. Its visibility in the mainstream media, financial exchanges, global supply chains, and even common stores is minimal. But the lack of widespread recognition need not diminish India’s potential impact or its emerging role in international affairs.

While India’s middle class is expanding, concerns are raised about its comparability with developed nations. The overvaluation of gross domestic product (GDP) using ‘purchasing power parity’ (PPP) misrepresents India’s global economic outreach; not even comparable with China let alone the US or the European Union.

It is essential to acknowledge that India’s per capita income remains far too low– ranked 139th in nominal and 127th in terms of PPP. The sheer size of the Indian market, with just under 1.5 billion consumers, and a nominal GDP of $3 trillion presents a compelling opportunity for global businesses. Enabling easy access to this market, India can become a crucial player in driving economic growth in the East.

The bilateral trade between them remains low, and was just $ 120 billion in 2022; compared to US-China trade valuing $540 billion annually. It is surprising to find that the Indian investment in the US is as low as $ 5 billion; what value can it yield in a 25 trillion-dollar US economy!

India’s global trade culture can be judged from the fact that strategically it is out of international treaties. Notwithstanding, the IT linked out-migration, India has a large low productivity labour force, unemployable even domestically.

India has the largest number (in absolute terms but also, as a share of its population) of the global poor and socio-economically deprived. A high proportion of its children are stunted and malnourished with little access to safe child care facilities. Public resources are not directed to improving quality of education even at the primary, elementary, and high school levels in spite of constitutional guarantees for ‘no child left behind’ policy. A high proportion of homes lack toilets and running water. Note that India is ranked 131 in the global human development index reflecting mass illiteracy, gender bias and lack of skills that facilitates better labour productivity.

Defence alignment and ‘shared values’  

India’s increasing inclination towards sourcing defence supplies from the US does signify a strengthening strategic partnership. However, it is important to recognize that defence cooperation takes time to mature, and challenges may arise along the way. India is less likely to offer operational collaboration and land resources for launching any military offensive against China.

The notion of India andUS as torchbearers of democracy, free trade, and free speech is rightfully greeted with scepticism. Recent Indian policy approaches are openly hurting the civil liberties of 240 million Abrahamic religious minorities, namely Muslims and Christians who are spread out, all over its geographic expanse. Besides experiencing a physical threat to their lives, their economic and political rights have been compromised and curtailed.

While speaking of democracy, India records low levels on qualitative indicators. It is ranked 30th as a democracy and not on the top as we are made to believe by newspapers in India. Therefore, careful navigation and continuous dialogue are essential to ensuring that ‘shared values’ are effectively upheld and promoted. It is worth noting here that components and characteristics of democratic policy are not matters of negotiations and diplomacy.

Development indicators and democratic challenges

India does face significant challenges in areas such as labour productivity, human development, and democracy. Notwithstanding its low per capita income, there are concerns about the country’s progress on qualitative indicators. The existence of majoritarian rule and prevalence of religious and ethnic tensions cannot be dismissed.

No doubt it is important to acknowledge that India is a diverse and complex nation undergoing a transformative journey. By addressing these challenges, and following the spirit of its own constitutional provisions, India must further strengthen its democratic foundations and foster inclusive growth.

While countervailing arguments exist regarding India’s rising importance, it is crucial to recognize the potential it holds. India’s unfamiliarity in public policy circles and limited recognition in mainstream media should not overshadow its growing significance. By embracing the economic potential of its expanding middle-class, navigating defence partnerships, addressing development challenges, and upholding democratic values, India can play a crucial role in shaping the global landscape. The US has a special status, in a still globalising world, to point to democratic lapses a partner country carries during trade and strategic negotiations and prevail upon them to reset benchmarks. The international community should engage with India as it continues its path of progress, fostering a mutually beneficial relationship that propels shared prosperity and stability in the world.

Turbulence ahead?

The Economist Intelligence Unit has assigned low values to India for its ‘political culture’ and ‘civil liberties’. India currently is under the clutches of ‘majoritarian rule’ hurting its ethos of unity in diversity.

Right now, the ethnic confrontations in the north-eastern state of Manipur must be addressed forthwith so that many lives are saved both in the valley and the hills. It is becoming clear that the federal government structure in alliance with the current state government tactically supports the Meiteis who reside in the state capital and plains of this state.

The proposed new law allows the Meiteis as well as the new migrants from mainland India to get legal ownership on land areas and economically as well as politically exploit resources from the hills and mountains. To this end the state administration is not only using the police but also seeking support of the Indian army (many officers are Meiteis) to scare away the Kukis, it is reported.

There are ground reports that the Meiteis are being helped by the establishment, or at least the government is looking away, as they continue to take up arms so as to create a ‘local militia’ to deal with the privately armed groups of Kukis. The ground reports have confirmed that fears of so-called ethnic cleansing may not be that far-fetched.

In such violent turmoil many events take a ‘religious’ and communal shape; and it is said that over 200 churches belonging to the Meiteis have been demolished, not to speak of the Kuki’s places of workshop including their churches.

The crisis there is not only of a ‘remote’ part of north-east India, but may well mirror deeper problems with India’s place in its democratic journey as of now. The sound generated by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi not saying a word about this may ring louder than the government of India may want it to. Washington would be listening to both– the silences and the words this week.

Abusaleh Shariff is chief scholar at the US-India Policy Institute.

John Prabhudoss is the Chairman of the Federation of Indian American Christian Organizations.

This article was published on thewire.in/